Game of the Year 2025 predictions: The front-runners and challengers to come

The 11th Game Awards, scheduled for Dec. 11, are wide open. Grand Theft Auto 6, which was previously expected to dominate the Awards this year, has been delayed into 2026. That will make for a much less predictable Game of the Year competition at the leading awards ceremony for the game industry — the Oscars of gaming, as it were.

The Game Awards’ voting body is composed of a wide range of international games media (Polygon included), with a 10% contribution from fan voting. There are a number of strong indicators for what will perform well in the Game of the Year category. A high Metacritic rating (preferably over 90) is a must; role-playing games and action-adventures are strongly favored, as are games with strong narrative elements; indie and multiplayer games struggle harder for recognition than AAA single-player adventures. We used these metrics to correctly predict last year’s winner, Astro Bot. (We also got four of the six nominees right, and correctly called 14 other categories.) 

Below, you’ll find our predictions for the most likely nominees, of which there are six each year, for Game of the Year 2025. Unlike the film industry, where most titles are known quantities well in advance, you never really know what kind of impact a video game will have, or how good it will be, until it’s out. With that in mind, this list only includes games that are already out. We’ll update these rankings throughout the year as new games are released. We’ll also list some likely upcoming contenders and some of the 2025 GOTY race’s dark horses, too.

Update (July 21): Donkey Kong Bananza crashes into the front-runners list, powered by strong reviews and the novelty factor of being a Switch 2 exclusive. Death Stranding 2 slips a little after launch excitement subsides and its review scores dip slightly, while Clair Obscur continues to look unassailable in the lead. Donkey Kong’s arrival finally pushes Indiana Jones and the Great Circle out of the top six — it did well to stay in the race this long, but its late 2024 release always made it the longest of long shots.

GOTY front-runners

1. Clair Obscur: Expedition 33

Why it could win: A critically acclaimed role-playing game, strong on storytelling and performance, thematically resonant but also fun, with slick production values and shiny graphics — this is the stuff Game of the Year winners are made of. It’s an astonishing achievement from the relatively small debut team at Sandfall Interactive, which only adds to its cachet. The somewhat similar Metaphor: ReFantazio was very strong in 2024. Expedition 33 is looking hard to beat.

Weaknesses: While it’s a minor hit, enough people need to play Expedition 33 — especially among the critical community — to keep it in the conversation for more than six months. Game Pass will help, but is it really big enough to win?

Momentum (holding steady): Clair Obscur is a complete package, people are still playing and talking about it, and prediction markets are overwhelmingly betting on its success. It’s very secure in the top spot.

Read Polygon’s Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 review here.

2. Donkey Kong Bananza

Why it could win: With a rating of 90 or more on both Metacritic and OpenCritic, Bananza has the necessary level of critical support to compete. That’s not surprising in a Nintendo platformer, which counts against it. But, with its destruction gameplay, resuscitation of Donkey Kong as a lead character, and status as the standard-bearer for a new console, it has more novelty value than your average Mario game, and makes for a more interesting story.

Weaknesses: Family-oriented platformers tend to underperform in Game of the Year, due to perceived immaturity and under-developed storylines. Astro Bot bucked that trend last year, but two wins in a row seems unlikely. Plus, Nintendo’s greatness is assumed and taken for granted.

Momentum (new entry): Bananza has made a splash, and may also maintain momentum better than some as more people pick up Switch 2s.

Read Polygon’s Donkey Kong Bananza impressions here.

3. Death Stranding 2: On the Beach

Why it could win: Hideo Kojima’s sequel to his divisive, prophetic 2019 sci-fi epic about hiking across the barren wasteland between bunkers of civilization is both grander and more palatable than the original. A technically astounding, absorbing, ambitious dad game, with rave reviews, published by Sony… it’s got all the features of a major GOTY contender, and it comes from the most famous video game auteur still working.

Weaknesses: Next to Clair Obscur’s underdog story, Death Stranding 2 feels like the establishment choice, despite its many oddities. And the closeness between Kojima and Keighley (who had a cameo in the first game) might make some jury members feel queasy about voting for it.

Momentum (📉 from No. 2): Death Stranding 2’s review ratings have cooled a little since launch — it’s now at 89 on both Metacritic and OpenCritic. And it’s not clear that the game has meaningfully broken out from its existing fanbase.

Read Polygon’s Death Stranding 2 impressions here.

4. Blue Prince

Why it could win: Indie games have a tough time breaking through into the main Game of the Year competition at The Game Awards, but there’s often room for one, and Blue Prince has got everything going for it. It has been met with overwhelming critical acclaim, with a 92 Metascore. Everyone in the critical/voter community seems to be playing it. And its deep mystery, challenging puzzles, and intriguing narrative elements should keep the conversation going around it.

Weaknesses: Blue Prince is quite challenging and inscrutable by the standards of a typical Game Awards GOTY pick. Previous indie nominees like Stray and Inside are definitely more accessible and character-driven, while last year’s similarly mysterious Animal Well didn’t make the cut. Also, if another great indie game comes along this year — Hades 2 for example — Blue Prince will have to fight it for the single nomination that the indie gaming community seems to be allowed.

Momentum (holding steady): As the default indie contender, Blue Prince is safe — at least until Hades 2, Hollow Knight: Silksong, or another unexpected game comes along.

Read Polygon’s Blue Prince review here.

5. Split Fiction

Why it could win: Critical consensus is still the most reliable indicator of success at The Game Awards, and with a rating over 90 on both Metacritic and OpenCritic, Hazelight’s co-op adventure is a clear front-runner in this regard. It’s got a legacy advantage, too: Hazelight’s previous game, It Takes Two, won GOTY in 2021, and since then has amassed a massive popular following. As a story-led action-adventure, Split Fiction also belongs to a genre that the Game Awards jury has been known to favor in the past.

Weaknesses: Perhaps It Takes Two’s win will count against it if jury members are looking for something different to reward. Also, while It Takes Two’s intensely personal story about divorce was unquestionably a strength, Split Fiction has been praised more for its design than its abstract and overworked tale of writers adrift in virtual reality.

Momentum (📉from No. 3): Split Fiction has been in the race a long time now and conversation has died away, but don’t undervalue its popularity with normies and the uniqueness of its co-op framework.

Read Polygon’s Split Fiction review here.

6. Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2

Why it could win: This could be this year’s Black Myth: Wukong: an ambitious hit game from a developer operating outside the gaming establishment, delivering on core gamers’ ardent desire for massive solo adventures made without compromise. Deliverance 2 is a realistic medieval RPG with strong storytelling, and critics really liked it (its Metascore is 88). Another similar game might be the 2015 GOTY winner, The Witcher 3. This is right in The Game Awards’ sweet spot. 

Weaknesses: Black Myth: Wukong didn’t win GOTY — much to its producer’s chagrin. Just like Black Myth’s Game Science, Kingdom Come developer Warhorse is considered politically radioactive by some, after founder Daniel Vávra made pro-Gamergate comments in 2015. Perhaps more to the point, the game is a challenging time sink that isn’t that broadly played among journalists and jurors, despite respectable sales.

Momentum (📉from No. 5): As the earliest entrant in the race, Deliverance 2 has naturally slowed down. But it’s a hardcore fan favorite and its vocal followers will be sure to keep it front of mind.

Read Polygon’s Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 review here.

Dark horses

Avowed: Obsidian Games’ traditional fantasy RPG had a slightly soft critical reception but a long tail and strong word of mouth, as players found its dependable, old-fashioned qualities tough to turn away from. With strong writing in a favored genre, it’s the definition of a Game Awards dark horse.

Indiana Jones and the Great Circle: It’s incredible that MachineGames’ Indy game has stayed in contention at all — it was released a couple days before The Game Awards 2024 took place — but it remains a sentimental fave with many critics, in part because of the improbability of the game turning out so well.

Despelote: This Ecuadorian slice-of-life indie game about soccer and childhood is a minor critical sensation, with raves from some key reviewers. But it will need some virality to grow its cultural footprint enough to compete, and even then it seems unlikely to get past indie favorite Blue Prince.

Monster Hunter Wilds: Capcom’s latest in the monster-hunting RPG series launched to acclaim and huge sales early in the year, making it an early favorite. But time (and its community) haven’t been very kind, and many people would now rate it behind 2018’s World.

The Alters: 11 Bit Studios’ fascinating, uncomfortable game about creating clones of yourself to survive an inhospitable planet doesn’t have unanimous critical backing, but it’s really got people talking, which is a great asset in the GOTY race.

Upcoming titles

Metroid Prime 4: Beyond: Retro Studios’ very long-awaited return to the first-person sci-fi adventures of Samus may not be Nintendo’s only GOTY contender in the Switch 2’s release year — but it might be the likeliest. The Metroid Prime sub-series is adored by critics, and has never dropped below 90 on Metacritic, while Metroid Dread scored a GOTY nomination in 2021.

Hades 2: Assuming it emerges from early access this year, Supergiant’s roguelike sequel will likely be leading the indie contenders for the year — out to avenge the original game’s perceived snub at the 2020 awards. (It’s eligible regardless, but the jury prefers not to nominate early access games.)

Keeper: We know next to nothing about Double Fine’s next game, due in October; it’s about a sentient lighthouse with a bird friend and seems to have no dialogue. But based purely on artwork and vibes (plus Psychonauts 2’s nomination) it seems like a likely contender.

Ghost of Yōtei: No publisher has a better record at the Game Awards than Sony, and besides Death Stranding 2, its other contender this year is this open-world samurai adventure — another sequel to a game (Ghost of Tsushima) whose reputation has only grown over time. If nothing else, this more rarefied, bespoke-feeling release will edge out the similarly themed Assassin’s Creed Shadows.

Hollow Knight: Silksong: Team Cherry’s long, long, long-awaited follow-up to its 2017 indie hit could well clean up at The Game Awards, in part because the original didn’t make much of an impression there and the jury will be keen to retrospectively reward it.